A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
